The term ‘Gray Zone’ can be described as a situation where the known “rules” and ownership ceases to exist.  In the Gray Zone, competitive forces engage just below the threshold of an “official” conflict, achieving specific gains without escalating into a full war.  This gray zone eliminates the risks that a full conflict brings but with unpredictable consequences. Future conflicts where undefined combatants are backed or are even part of an established government (e.g. Russia in Ukraine) will bring demands that will require innovation and ever faster implementation. Now “gray is becoming the new black”.

In fact, the armor industry is just starting to adapt to this type of conflict.

The current emphasis within the armor industry is on three aspects of the armor equation: lightness, thinness and trauma.  Although these 3 factors will remain important, consideration on future demands to have a more effective operator will increase as “covert conflict” develops.  The continuous improvement efforts to deliver an effective operator / equipment is presently addressed independently; e.g. data gathering, assessment and digestion, night vision systems, power requirements and re-charging needs, operator effectiveness – health/stamina/recovery.  This independent implementation is creating fuzzy Gray Zone performances of their own.

While visiting the recurring Fall – Winter DOD / Armor Shows (e.g. DSEI, MiliPol, AUSA, AMSUS, Shot Show) one can appreciate that the Armor Industry (particularly the soft armor Industry) emphasizes the performance - cost ratio without seriously addressing the complementary factors (data management, GPS, night vision, power sourcing, operator health management etc.). Companies like Rheinmetall, Singapore Technologies – among others - are the few who recognize the value of integration to enhance survivability and operation effectiveness.   While the soft armor industry is actively looking to shed some grams, the electronic counterpart is adding substantially more weight.  Operator decisions made based on gathered data will not be as effective if these systems are not consolidated into a Standard Package.  “The How” to effectively address survivability without consolidating individual items would be wrong and hazardous.

Indeed, some Future Soldier programs are looking at the needed integration, but continuous advances in electronic warfare are more rapid than the project itself. The Gray Zone competitive forces adoption rate is accelerating, taking advantage of ‘off the shelf’ technology and incorporating them into their systems as no regulations or barriers exist for them.

Survivability (e.g. Armor included) will require quick adaptation as the Gray Zone becomes the norm.  The threats and delivery modes will change as well as the terrain.  The conflict pattern will become more aggressive, the law enforcement role will become more extensive.  The Gray Zone will implement and bring off the shelf technology to the forefront, expect aerial IED delivered by low cost drones, expect remote sharp shooters. In other words, be prepared to offer survivability solutions and alternatives within short time frames as we move deeper into this more pervasive Gray Zone